一体化压铸趋势带来的市场增量空间,材料端是最大的,竞争格局也是最优的。
1.整体的一体化压铸更利于回收再生,减少拆解工序,降低回收成本;
2.对铝杂质要求放宽,可以全部使用再生铝,极大拓展了市场规模;
随一体化压铸零部件上量,预计国内乘用车免热材料年需求量将从1-2万吨增至2025年的104万吨(三年百倍)、2030年的600万吨,带动乘用车单车铸造铝用量从100kg+增至300kg+,汽车铸造铝总需求将从2020年的307万吨增至2025年的633万吨(CAGR16%)、2030年的906万吨(CAGR11%)。
3.免热处理合金提升市场门槛,加速产业整合,利于行业集中,竞争格局优化;
一体化铸造一方面降低了铝合金杂质要求,另一方面也提高了铝合金的性能要求。铸造由于其本身的加工性质,铸件的力学性能差,需要优质的免热处理铝合金材料来满足性能要求。这一环节存在技术壁垒,车厂一旦确认某一型号铝合金则不会轻易改变,利好合作多技术强的龙头企业。
目前国内再生铝企业约为 2000 家,其中生产规模在 10 万吨以上的只有 30 家左右,年产能达到 30 万吨的仅有几家公司,可以做免热处理合金的公司更少,一体化趋势带来的免热处理合金有望加速产业整合,优化竞争格局和盈利水平。
4.100%的碳中和行业,国家政策和产业环境支持,相关项目获批和建设速度迅速,看好产业规模放量扩张 。
与原生铝生产相比,每吨再生铝相当于节能3,443千克标准煤,节水22立方米,减少固体废物排放20吨。但通过废铝资源回收再利用发展循环经济,可以有效缓解铝矿供需矛盾,降低铝矿资源对外依赖度。
立中集团&顺博合金&永茂泰
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Nice post, na-share ko na sa mga kaibigan ko.
Nice post, na-share ko na sa mga kaibigan ko.
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منشور جميل ، لقد شاركته مع أصدقائي.
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